West Bengal Election 2026: Analysis

WEST BENGAL ELECTION 2026: ANALYSIS

In the last election (2021) Trinamool Congress won a whopping 216/294 seats (73%) and BJP won only 77 seats (26%). Trinamool with almost a 75% majority looked invincible. But there were two important things:

1. Votes: Trinamool got 48.5% of the votes and BJP got 38.1% - a difference of 10.4% points. A big gap - but not as big as the seats gap.

2. Trend: The bottom graph tells the real story. In 2021, BJP had massively improved its position/performance: from just 10.6% votes in 2016 to 38.1% in 2021 - an increase of 27% points. BJP clearly had the momentum - the only question was: could it sustain its momentum to overtake Trinamool?

The question was answered on Monday: BJP got 45.9% votes (+8% points) and 207 seats (70%). Trinamool got 41.1% votes (-7% points) and only 80 seats (27%). BJP converted its vote gap of -10% in the last election to +5% this time.

In a first-past-the-pole system, a small vote gap can translate into a big seats gap. Trinamool did it in 2021 - and BJP has done it this time . . .