India's Trade-To-GDP Ratio

The graph shows the trade-to-GDP ratio* versus the logarithm of GDP for 184 countries**. It shows a slight decreasing relationship between the two - as GDP increases, the trade-to-GDP ratio decreases slightly. India is shown by the red dot - and it is below the trendline. That is - its trade-to-GDP ratio (at 45%) is below what it should be as per this relationship (which is 70%). So there is a lot of scope (25% points) for increasing India's trade (both exports and imports) to make it on par with the world's trend relationship . . .

*[Trade = exports + imports]

**[I have left out 9 outliers whose trade-to-GDP ratio is more than 200% - these are small high-trading countries]

Data-source: World Bank

The Effect Of Trade On Growth

THE EFFECT OF TRADE ON GROWTH

Total trade (exports + imports) increases growth. Empirical research has proved this conclusively. But there is no theoretical model that shows this. This is because trade does not increase growth directly - but indirectly. And this indirect relationship between trade and growth is shown by two sets of models: growth models and trade models.

1. Growth models like Romer model and Lucas model show that technology and knowledge increase growth. And an important source of technology and knowledge is trade.

2. Trade models like Ricardo model and Heckscher-Ohlin model show that trade increases specialisation and efficiency. And specialisation and efficiency increase growth.

Thus these two sets of models indirectly show that trade increases growth . . .

Why Trade Is Good (Both Exports And Imports)

WHY TRADE IS GOOD (BOTH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS)

GDP is given by the basic equation:

Y = C + I + G + X - M

or Y = C + I + G + NX

where NX = X - M

These equations *seem* to say that GDP consists of net exports (or trade surplus) and hence:

1. Exports are good

2. Imports are bad

3. Trade surplus is good

4. Trade deficit is bad

1 is correct and 3 is partially correct. But 2 and 4 are fallacies. They are bad in themselves; what is worse is they make people miss an important economic variable: total trade (ie, exports + imports). Research has conclusively proved that total trade has a strong positive impact on economic growth.

Believing fallacies 2 and 4 leads to a zero-sum-game mindset. But trade is not a zero-sum-game. Trade (exports + imports) gives us:

a) A bigger market for our exports

b) Cheap and good-quality products

c) Specialisation and efficiency

d) Knowledge and technology

So we must avoid fallacies 2 and 4 (which are due to a wrong understanding of the GDP equation) and instead look at total trade (exports + imports):

T = X + M