Best Movies Of 2023

BEST MOVIES OF 2023

1. ಟೋಬಿ (Toby)
2. Sam Bahadur
3. Woman King
4. Killers Of Flower Moon
5. Oppenheimer
6. Haunting In Venice
7. Fabelmans
8. Golda
9. Dumb Money
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

2023 People Of The Year: India's Women Wrestlers

# For fighting against sexual harassment and speaking up for countless girls and women

# For reminding us that right vs wrong is more important than politics and ideology
# For fighting against the abuse of power and keeping our democracy alive
# For waking up our conscience and reminding us of our duty
# For showing us the true meaning of heroism

India's women wrestlers are 2023's People Of The Year . . .

Raghuram Rajan: 'Breaking The Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future'

Dr Raghuram Rajan visited the Reserve Bank of India's economics research institute (IGIDR, Bombay) yesterday and talked about his new book Breaking The Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future.

The historical process of development/modernisation has been from agriculture to manufacturing to services. That is how Europe, America and East Asia have developed. But India missed the manufacturing stage - and the consensus opinion is that we must correct this mistake. The current government is trying to do this [example: the Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme].

Dr Raghuram Rajan challenges this conventional wisdom, arguing that we are trying to play the 20th century game - instead of playing the 21st century game. He argues that manufacturing is a thing of the past and that the future lies in services. And to win this 21st century services game, we have to fundamentally reform our systems - most importantly our education system.

One may or may not agree with everything that Dr Raghuram Rajan says - but he is definitely a very intelligent, knowledgeable and thought-provoking economist . . .

India's Jobs: Jul-Sep 2023

The Periodic Labour Force Survey's (PLFS) report for Jul-Sep 2023 was released a few days ago (for cities). If we compare it with the Jul-Sep 2022 report, we can see how India's jobs scenario has performed over the last one year:

# The good news is that the Worker Population Ratio (WPR) has increased, by 1.3% points - from 34.9% to 36.2%.

# The first bad news is in Graph 1 - the % of workers in the 3 sectors (agriculture, industry, services). The % of workers in agriculture has increased - by 0.4% points (from 5.7% to 6.1%). And the % of workers in industry has decreased - by 1% point (from 33.4% to 32.4%). So effectively workers have moved out of industry into agriculture.

# The second bad news is in Graph 2 - the % of workers by type of employment (regular wage/salary, self employed, casual labour). The % of regular wage/salary workers has decreased - by 0.4% points (from 48.7% to 48.3%). And the % of self-employed workers has increased - by 0.7% points (from 39.7% to 40.4%). So effectively workers have moved out of regular wage/salary jobs into self-employment.

It is not enough to simply create jobs. We must create good jobs - ie:

1. Jobs in industry + services (vs agriculture)

2. Regular wage/salary jobs (vs self-employment)

A Soldier

A SOLDIER

What is the meaning of your life?

Is your life meaningless?

It seems so many times

In fact, all the time

But pause for a moment

Step back from your life

Step above your grind

And see the big picture

Then you will realise the truth

You are exactly where you should be

You are doing exactly what you should be doing

This is the best place in the world

This is the best time of your life

You are just an ordinary soldier

But you are a soldier of the Gods

And the Gods have a plan for you

You are walking on Their path

So give every day your 100%

And have faith in the Gods

And Their plan for you . . .

India's Jobs/Employment Scenario

The Periodic Labour Force Survey's (PLFS) 2022-23 report was released yesterday. PLFS is a very detailed survey about India's jobs/employment scenario. It was started in 2017-18.

The graphs below show the key indicators of India's jobs/employment scenario since 2017-18. This data is important because it shows us the impact of the Covid crisis (2020-22) on the Indian economy.

1. Worker Population Ratio (WPR): This is the ratio of the number of workers to the total population. It is the most important indicator of the jobs/employment scenario. India's WPR has increased from 35% in 2017-18 to 41% in 2022-23. It had decreased in 2021-22 - due to the Covid second wave.

2. The Three Sectors: Agriculture is the biggest sector with around 46% of the workers. Services sector has around 30% of the workers. Industry sector has around 25% of the workers. Services sector has decreased from 32% in 2018-19 to 29% in 2022-23 - due to the Covid crisis.

3. Formal Vs Informal: The formal sector has decreased from 32% (of non-agricultural workers) in 2017-18 to 26% in 2022-23. The informal sector has increased from 68% in 2017-18 to 74% in 2022-23. Thus the Covid crisis has made the Indian economy more informal.

4. Type Of Employment: There are 3 types of employment:
a) Self employed
b) Regular wage/salary
c) Casual labour
Self employed is the biggest category with around 57% of the workers. Casual labourers are around 22% and regular wage/salary workers are around 21%. Self employed workers have increased from 52% in 2017-18 to 57% in 2022-23 due to the Covid crisis.

Conclusion: The total number of workers (WPR) has increased. But the quality of the jobs (industry/services vs agriculture; formal vs informal; regular wage/salary vs self employed / casual labour) has decreased due to the Covid crisis . . . Note: The PLFS year is from July to June (not April to March).

A Fool On Life

A FOOL ON LIFE

Life is pain

Life is fear

Face your pain

Face your fear

Face them bravely

And fight against them

Give it everything you have

Because at the end of the day

Only one thing matters

And that is staying alive

You think life owes you?

You think the world owes you?

Life doesn't owe you shit

The world doesn't owe you shit

They say God rewards the good

My friend, there is no God

There are only the laws of the universe

And those are blind to your goodness

Good people have pain and fear

Bad people have money and power

That is the law of the universe

Wake up to it, my friend

So what are you going to do?

Cry and weep about it?

Or wake up to the truth

And live like a man?

Congress Freebies Disaster In Karnataka

CONGRESS FREEBIES DISASTER IN KARNATAKA

The Karnataka government presented its Budget yesterday. The Congress Party won the state election in May by promising a vast amount of freebies. The previous BJP government had presented its Budget (for the same financial year, 2023-24) in February. So if we compare these two Budgets, we can easily see the impact of the freebies.

The Budget has 4 components:

1. Revenue expenditure = Spending on welfare schemes, etc

This has increased by around ₹ 25,000 crore (+11.3%) - due to the freebies.

2. Capital expenditure = Spending on infrastructure, etc

This has decreased by around ₹ 7,000 crore (-8.2%) - to compensate for the increase in #1.

3. Revenue receipts = Income from taxes, etc

This has increased by around ₹ 12,000 crore (+5.5%) - to pay for the increase in #1.

4. Capital receipts = Income from loans, etc

This has increased by around ₹ 8,000 crore (+10.3%) - to pay for the increase in #1.

5. Fiscal deficit = Excess of spending over income

This has increased by around ₹ 6,000 crore (+10%) - due to the increase in #1.

So the impact of freebies for the 7 crore people of Karnataka is:

1. Higher taxes

2. Higher borrowings

3. Higher fiscal deficit

4. Lesser infrastructure

Or in other words - an all-round economic disaster.

The best part is Congress has declared that it will implement this 'Karnataka Model' in all the state elections this year: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana . . .

Movie Industries And Languages Of India

MOVIE INDUSTRIES AND LANGUAGES OF INDIA

How are the Telugu and Tamil movie industries the biggest movie industries in the country (after Hindi) - though Maharashtra and Bengal are bigger than Andhra Pradesh (old) and Tamil Nadu? The usual answer is that south Indians watch movies more than north Indians. Is there any data for this?

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) has a question: "Do you usually go to a theatre or cinema hall to see a movie at least once a month?". Column 2 of the table shows this data from the latest NFHS (2019-20)*. We see that 32% of Telugu speakers and 30% of Tamil speakers watch movies regularly - almost double the national average of 16%. But only 21% of Marathi speakers and 9% of Bengali speakers watch movies regularly. If we multiply this by the number of people who speak the language (column 1) we get the number of regular movie watchers in that language (column 3). Thus the highest number of regular movie watchers is for Telugu (2.8 crore) and Tamil (2.4 crore) - more than for Marathi (2 crore) and Bengali (1 crore).

That is why the Telugu and Tamil movie industries are the biggest movie industries in the country . . .

*Note: For Tamil Nadu, I have taken the data from NFHS 2015-16. The state had a severe drought in 2016-17 and this affected its data for 2019-20.

Unemployment Rate: The Most Meaningless Number In Economics

Unemployment rate is the most meaningless number in economics. Why? What is unemployment rate?

Unemployment rate = Unemployed / Labour force = Unemployed / (Employed + Unemployed)

Why do I say it is meaningless? Let me ask a simple question: If the unemployment rate goes down, is it good or bad? Most people will say it is good. But this answer is wrong. Why?

There are 3 categories of people with regard to employment:

1. Employed

2. Unemployed

3. Outside the labour force (OLF)

Unemployed people are those who are:

a) Not working

b) But are looking for work.

People outside the labour force (OLF) are those who are:

a) Not working and

b) Are NOT looking for work.

The best example of people outside the labour force are house-wives.

So there are totally 3 categories of people with regard to employment. Now if the unemployment rate goes down, it basically means that the number of unemployed people has gone down - ie, some people have left the 'unemployed' category. But which category have they gone into? There are two other categories: employed and outside the labour force. If they have gone into the 'employed' category (ie, they got jobs) then the decrease in the unemployment rate is a good thing. But if they have gone into the 'outside the labour force' category (ie, they stopped looking for jobs) then it is a bad thing. Which of these two things has happened? Just by looking at the unemployment rate, we simply do not know. So if the unemployment rate goes down (or up) we do not really know if it is good or bad. That is why I said the unemployment rate is a meaningless number.

But if the unemployment rate is meaningless, which employment number must we look at to know the health of the economy? Answer: the Worker Population Ratio (WPR). What is Worker Population Ratio?

Worker Population Ratio = Employed / Population

So if the WPR goes up, is it good or bad? It basically means that the number of employed people has gone up - ie, people have got jobs. So it is good - no ifs or buts. And if the WPR goes down, is it good or bad? It basically means that the number of employed people has gone down - ie, people have lost jobs. So it is bad - no ifs or buts.

Unfortunately, whenever the media reports on the employment data, it always reports only one number: the unemployment rate. It completely ignores the other numbers - especially the Worker Population Ratio. But, as explained above, we must stop looking at the unemployment rate and start looking at WPR instead . . .

India's State Government Budgets

INDIA'S STATE GOVERNMENT BUDGETS

With the Indian govt presenting its Budget, now the states will be presenting their Budgets. Let us look at last year's Budgets of four selected states - Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

The four basic components of the Budget are:

1. Revenue receipts = Good income (Taxes)

2. Capital receipts = Bad income (Loans)

3. Revenue expenditure = Bad spending (Govt salaries)

4. Capital expenditure = Good spending (Infrastructure)

Let us look at these four components for the four states (as a % of their GDP):

1. Good income - Maharashtra is the best with 14.3% and Gujarat (surprisingly) is the worst with 11.2%.

2. Bad income - Gujarat is the best with 3.1% and Tamil Nadu is the worst with 6.7%.

3. Bad spending - Gujarat is the best with 11.1% and Tamil Nadu is the worst with 15.8%.

4. Good spending - Karnataka is the best with 2.7% and Gujarat (surprisingly) is the worst with 2.1%.

India Budget 2023-24: Analysis

INDIA BUDGET 2023-24: ANALYSIS

Budget basically consists of two things: 

1. Income - called 'receipts'

2. Spending - called 'expenditure'

And both these things in turn consist of two more things: 'revenue' and 'capital'.

So the two types of receipts (income) are:

1. Revenue receipts - Mainly taxes (good)

2. Capital receipts - Mainly loans (bad - because we must repay them, with interest)

And the two types of expenditure (spending) are:

1. Revenue expenditure - Mainly salaries of govt workers (bad)

2. Capital expenditure - Mainly assets like infrastructure (good - because they make the economy more productive)

Thus totally we have 2 x 2 = 4 things. Table 1 shows the comparison of these four numbers between this financial year (2022-23) and the Budget - which is for the next financial year (2023-24). The last column shows the % increases in bold:

1. Revenue receipts (good income) is going up by 11.9% - while capital receipts (bad income) is going up by only 1.6%.

2. Capital expenditure (good spending) is going up by 30.5% - while revenue expenditure (bad spending) is going up by only 1.2%.

These numbers look very positive. But how realistic are they? Table 2 shows the similar comparison of these four numbers between this financial year (2022-23) and the last financial year (2021-22).

Finally Table 3 shows the comparison between these two sets of increases (ie, Table 1 vs Table 2). The two critical rows are shown in red:

1. This financial year, revenue receipts (good income) has gone up by only 8.3% - while the Budget says it will go up by 11.9% the next financial year.

2. This financial year, revenue expenditure (bad spending) has gone up by 8.1% - while the Budget says it will go up by only 1.2% the next financial year.

So going by this financial year's actual numbers, the Budget seems to be:

1. Over-estimating the increase in revenue receipts (good income)

2. Under-estimating the increase in revenue expenditure (bad spending)

If these two numbers go wrong, then the government will have to bridge the increased gap between total receipts and total expenditure by increasing its capital receipts (bad income).

Thus at first sight, the Budget seems to be very ambitious. Let us see to what extent the government succeeds in achieving its ambitions . . .

P V Narasimha Rao And India's 1991 Economic Reforms

In 1991, Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao started the process of converting our economic system from inefficient govt-controlled socialism to efficient free-market capitalism. As a result of his economic reforms, today India is the 5th biggest economy in the world (from 17th) - and will become the 3rd biggest economy in the world by the end of this decade.

The 1991 reforms were triggered by the economic crisis of that year: our foreign exchange reserves went below $1 billion - enough to pay for only 3 weeks of imports. As a result, everybody says: "Narasimha Rao carried out the economic reforms because he had to. He did not have any choice - since there was a crisis."

This week Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves went down to the 3-weeks-of-imports level. Now if the above argument is correct, then Pakistan must also carry out a similar set of economic reforms. And what is the probability of that happening? We all know the answer to that.

It is true that the 1991 economic crisis triggered our economic reforms. But (as Pakistan is proving now) a crisis is only the necessary condition for carrying out difficult reforms. The sufficient condition is leadership - strong and visionary leadership. And Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao provided that strong and visionary leadership for India in 1991. Let us be logical and give credit where it is due . . .