20 May 2020

India's Debt, Fiscal Deficit And GDP Growth Rate

Let a country's GDP be G and its debt be D. Then its debt-to-GDP ratio is D/G. Let its GDP grow at a rate of g every year (0 < g < 1). Then its GDP next year will be (1 + g) × G. Let its fiscal deficit next year be F. Then its debt next year will be D + F. So its debt-to-GDP ratio next year will be (D + F)/[(1 + g) × G]. If the debt-to-GDP ratio is to remain constant, then:
D/G = (D + F)/[(1 + g) × G]

Let us express both debt and fiscal deficit as a fraction of the GDP. Let D/G be d and F/[(1 + g) × G] be f. Then the constant debt-to-GDP ratio condition becomes:
d = d /(1 + g) + f

This gives us:
1. f = d × g / (1 + g)
And:
2. g = f / (d - f)

A country starts off with a certain amount of debt (D) – which is expressed as a fraction of its GDP (D/G = d). It wants to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio (d). How to do this? There are two ways of asking and answering this question:
1. If the country's GDP grows at a certain rate g, then it must keep its fiscal deficit (as a fraction of its GDP) below some level f. Equation 1 gives us this value of f.
2. If the country maintains its fiscal deficit (as a fraction of its GDP) at a certain level f, then its GDP must grow above some rate g. Equation 2 gives us this value of g.

India's debt-to-GDP ratio is 70% – which is the highest among major industrialising countries. How to reduce this? We can use the two equations given above. Accordingly we have:

A. Maximum fiscal deficit (based on the GDP growth rate)
GDP Growth Rate
Maximum Fiscal Deficit
5%
3.3%
6%
4.0%
7%
4.6%
8%
5.2%
9%
5.8%
10%
6.4%
Our average GDP growth rate since 2000 has been 7%.

B. Minimum GDP growth rate (based on the fiscal deficit)
Fiscal Deficit
Minimum GDP Growth Rate
3%
4.5%
4%
6.1%
5%
7.7%
6%
9.4%
7%
11.1%
8%
12.9%
9%
14.8%
10%
16.7%
Our average fiscal deficit since 2000 has been 4.5%.

Note: The 2003 Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act states that the government must reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP.

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