2024 Election Analysis

2024 ELECTION ANALYSIS

"The inflation and unemployment of the last 5 years brought BJP down from 303 seats to 240 seats" - this is the consensus opinion of all political analysts about the election. But if this was the case, then BJP/NDA's seats must have come down in every state. However, NDA increased its seats in several states (see table) - including in states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where there was hardly any room for improvement. So inflation and unemployment are only half the story. The other half of the story is the state-level variation in the constituency-level factors like performance of the MPs, selection of the candidates, caste equations, etc . . .