Indian Economy: Oct-Dec 2024

INDIAN ECONOMY: OCT-DEC 2024

The urban employment data has just come out for Oct-Dec 2024. I look at 3 indicators of employment:

1. Worker Population Ratio (WPR)

2. % of workers in industry and services

3. % of regular wage/salaried workers

I make two comparisons - I compare Oct-Dec 2024 with:

a) Oct-Dec 2023 (the same quarter of the previous year)

b) Oct-Dec 2019 (the last normal/pre-Covid Oct-Dec quarter)

The graph shows these comparisons . . .

1. Worker Population Ratio (WPR):

a) This has increased by 0.4% points over the previous year. This is good news.

b) And it has increased by 2.9% points since the pre-Covid period. This is also good news.

2. % of workers in industry and services:

a) This has increased by 0.4% points over the previous year. This is good news.

b) But it is still 0.4% points below the pre-Covid period. This is not good news.

3. % of regular wage/salaried workers:

a) This has increased by 0.7% points over the previous year. This is good news.

b) But it is still 0.6% points below the pre-Covid period. This is not good news.

Thus the Indian economy is recovering from the Covid crisis - but it has not yet recovered fully . . .

India Budget 2025-26: Analysis

INDIA BUDGET 2025-26: ANALYSIS

# Fiscal deficit is decreasing from 4.8% of GDP (2024-25) to 4.4% (2025-26) - a decrease of 0.4% points. This is good.

# Nominal GDP is estimated to grow/increase in 2025-26 by 10.1%.

The 4 Budget components are changing from 2024-25 to 2025-26 like this:

1. Revenue Receipts (good income - ie, taxes)

This is increasing by 11.1% - which is more than the GDP growth rate (10.1%). This is good.

2. Capital Receipts (bad income - ie, loans)

This is *decreasing* by 0.0%. This is very good.

3. Revenue Expenditure (bad spending - salaries, schemes, subsidies)

This is increasing by 3.5% - which is less than the GDP growth rate. This is good.

4. Capital Expenditure (good spending - ie, infrastructure)

This is increasing by 17.4% - which is more than the GDP growth rate. This is good.

So this is a pro-growth and fiscally disciplined Budget . . .