McCain Vs Obama

Who will win the US Presidential elections in November? Most people look at the national polls for the answer. But America does not elect its President by a nation-wide general election. It instead follows a state-wise "electoral college" system. So for the answer to our question we must look at the state-level polls. If the elections were held today, the results would look like this:

State	Votes	McCain	Obama
Alabama	9	58	33
Alaska	3	50	41
Arizona	10	51	38
Arkansas	6	57	33
California	55	38	52
Colorado	9	42	48
Connecticut	7	44	47
District of Columbia	3	na	na
Delaware	3	41	50
Florida	27	47	40
Georgia	15	54	40
Hawaii	4	31	61
Idaho	4	52	39
Illinois	21	31	60
Indiana	11	51	43
Iowa	7	42	46
Kansas	6	52	37
Kentucky	8	57	32
Louisiana	9	50	41
Maine	4	38	51
Maryland	10	37	51
Massachusetts	12	39	50
Michigan	17	43	39
Minnesota	10	39	51
Mississippi	6	50	44
Missouri	11	47	44
Montana	3	48	43
Nebraska	5	49	40
Nevada	5	46	40
New Hampshire	4	45	43
New Jersey	15	41	48
New Mexico	5	43	46
New York	31	38	50
North Carolina	15	45	41
North Dakota	3	44	38
Ohio	20	43	44
Oklahoma	7	62	21
Oregon	7	39	51
Pennsylvania	21	41	46
Rhode Island	4	38	53
South Carolina	8	48	45
South Dakota	3	51	34
Tennessee	11	58	31
Texas	34	52	37
Utah	5	50	39
Vermont	3	29	63
Virginia	13	46	43
Washington	11	39	51
West Virginia	5	53	35
Wisconsin	10	43	46
Wyoming	3	53	40

'Votes' = how many electoral votes the state is worth
'McCain' = % of people in the state voting for John McCain
'Obama' = % of people in the state voting for Barack Obama

Here is how it works. All the electoral votes of a state are awarded to the candidate who wins that state. There is no proportional distribution – it's a 'winner takes all' system*. There are totally 538 electoral votes at stake. To win, a candidate must bag at least 270 electoral votes. As per this table the winner is Barack Obama, but only by a whisker – 272 to 266.

That's not the only thing close about it. Look at Ohio, which is worth 20 electoral votes. Obama is barely winning it (44% to 43%). If those 20 electoral votes go the other way, the winner will be John McCain – 286 to 252. And it's not just about Ohio. In 25 states the 'winning' candidate is ahead by less than 10%. That lead could disappear in the next 5 months. So all these 25 states are "in play". Together they are worth 240 electoral votes. That means anything can happen on November 4th!

PS: Markos Moulitsas (aka Kos) has done a similar analysis. He has chosen the poll numbers in a slightly different way, and hence has arrived at a slightly different result.

*There are two minor exceptions to this rule (Maine and Nebraska).